FURIOUS MPs blasted the tough new Tier systems system again today – as the Government admitted they have no idea about the huge economic hit it will have.
The PM is fighting his mutinous backbenchers this evening ahead of a crunch vote tomorrow – as up to 100 are concerned and could vote against it.
Toughened up new Tiers rules will come into law on Wednesday, when the second lockdown ends, which will plunge nearly the entire country into harsher restrictions.
But backbenchers insisted that they didn’t have enough information on the economic hit that could be to come if the Tiers system stays in place until March, as is planned.
And tonight the Government hastily shoved out a 48-page document filled with cut and paste information from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts and other Department of Health information.
It said: “While it is not possible to forecast the precise economic impact of a specific change to a specific restriction with confidence, it is clear that restrictions to contain COVID-19 have had major impacts on the economy and public finances.”
And the report argued: “It is not possible to know with any degree of confidence what path the economy would take if restrictions in place were not sufficient to prevent exponential growth or in the absence of restrictions entirely.”
It referenced stats from other economic documents released last week showing that GDP will fall by 11 per cent in 2020 – and unemployment will reach 7.5 per cent next year.
And it warned it will get worse than that prediction, saying that because “average restrictions in the UK are stricter than this, the short-term
economic costs are likely to be greater, and vice versa.”
It laid bare that pubs were the hardest hit industry from the lockdown, and stressed that with every rising per cent rise in unemployment, there was a two per cent rise in serious health conditions over time.
But it didn’t contain claims that Micheal Gove was told that 500,000 could lose their jobs if Tier 3 was shoved onto London, and didn’t reference the extra 50,000 which may still lose them.
In fact, the document was unable to provide any localised information at all.
In it it said: “It is also clear that restrictions to contain COVID-19 have had major impacts on the economy and public finances, even if it is not possible to forecast with confidence the precise impact of a specific change to a specific restriction.”
One Tory MP said: “It reads like an essay from one of those essay-plagiarising websites.
“If anything it’s made the mood worse.”
Mel Stride MP, Chair of the Treasury Committee, raged tonight: “On a number of occasions, I’ve requested from the Chancellor and Treasury officials that they publish an analysis of the economic impacts of the three tiers.
“With little over 24 hours until MPs vote on the new tiered system, this rehashed document offers very little further in economic terms other than that which the OBR published last week.
“It’s frustrating that there is little here that sets out how the different tiers might impact on the specific sectors and regions across the country.
“Those looking for additional economic analysis of the new tiered system will struggle to find it in this document.”
And Mark Harper of the Covid Recovery Group, blasted: “Even with so little time, the Government’s analysis seems to be collapsing under the glare of scrutiny.
“Before the current lockdown, incorrect death and hospital capacity modelling was leaked into the public domain to justify it, we asked for full details. We have asked repeatedly for the information that vindicates these hospital projections and they have not been forthcoming.
“We are now seeing that, once again, the wheels are coming off the Government’s arguments.”
MPs have demanded information on the economic consequences of lockdown for weeks.
Earlier today Cabinet minister George Eustice admitted the tiers were “draconian” and “unfair” to some.
But he stressed that it was necessary to keep infections low when England comes out of the national lockdown on Wednesday.
MPs are due to vote on the toughened up tiers system tomorrow afternoon.
Up to 100 MPs are said to have concerned with it.
However, it’s likely that the vote will comfortably pass if, as expected, Labour backs the new law.
