SNP could lose 21 MPs at next General Election in wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s exit

THE SNP could lose 21 MPs at the next General Election amid a Labour resurgence in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s exit, shock new poll findings suggest.

The research in the days running up to the First Minister’s resignation also underlined how support for Scottish independence has returned to around the same level as in 2014.

And it signalled a major challenge for the next SNP leader to revive the party to levels of support seen in Ms Sturgeon’s heyday.

The survey carried out between February 10 and 15 – the day Ms Sturgeon resigned – puts Labour around two points behind the SNP.

For the next General Election – expected in 2024 or 2025 – the new YouGov poll put the SNP on 29 per cent, Labour second on 27 per cent, and the Conservatives on 12 per cent.

The YouGov research for the academic-led Scottish Election Study came as a boost to Labour, with experts saying that Scots see the next UK-wide vote as a way to “remove the Conservatives from office”.

It comes as potential successors to Ms Sturgeon continued their behind-the-scenes lobbying of party colleagues yesterday – with no candidates declared so far.

But the party was left reeling yesterday by the new poll.

After stripping out those who said they ‘wouldn’t vote’, ‘don’t know’, and those who ‘refused’ to give a voting intention, the snapshot translates as 38 per cent support for the SNP, 36 per cent for Labour, 16 per cent for the Conservatives, five per cent for the Lib Dems, three per cent for the Greens, and three per cent for others.

In the 2019 General Election, the SNP gained 45.0 per cent of the vote share. Labour got 18.6 per cent support when Boris Johnson stormed to victory just over three years ago.

Seat projections from election analysts Electoral Calculus – based on proposed new boundaries, with Scotland down from 59 to 57 seats – suggests the SNP could fall by 21 seats to 27 MPs after the next General Election.

Labour would be up to 23 MPs from one, the Tories down one to five MPs, and the Lib Dems on two, down from four.