New poll suggests Labour landslide with some constituencies too close to call

Predicted landslide victory for Labour

A recent poll has forecasted a significant victory for the Labour party, with projections indicating a potential majority of 212 seats. This outcome would mark the largest majority for any party since 1832.

Key losses for the Conservatives

The poll also suggests that prominent Conservative figures, including 16 cabinet ministers, could lose their seats if the predictions hold true. Notable names at risk of losing their positions include Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Richard Holden, Iain Duncan Smith, and Miriam Cates.

Regional impact

If the projections are accurate, the Conservative party could face near-total obliteration in the north of England and Wales. However, Labour might also experience a setback if the Greens manage to secure victory in Bristol Central, potentially causing a front-bench casualty.

Interactive map reveals close contests

An interactive map accompanying the poll results sheds light on which constituencies are too close to call. The map provides a visual representation of the potential outcomes in different regions.

Vote share projections

The YouGov poll indicates estimated vote shares for various parties, with Labour at 39%, Conservatives at 22%, Reform at 15%, Lib Dems at 12%, Greens at 7%, SNP at 3%, and Plaid at 1%. The projected swing from Conservative to Labour is reported to be 14.3%, surpassing the swing observed during Tony Blair's landslide victory in 1997.

Methodology

The poll was conducted by interviewing 47,758 voters across Britain between June 19 and July 2 to gather data for the projections.