WHERE were you when Boris Johnson’s government collapsed? For most of Westminster’s power brokers, the answer would have been drinking at one of SW1’s endless boozy summer parties.
Rewind 12 months from this week and the golden boy-turned-troubled Chancellor Rishi Sunak had just quit – and the pop went out of BoJo’s premiership quicker than a glass of warm fizz.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrives for The Spectator’s Summer Party this week
One year on, party season was in full swing again this week. But the Tory psychodrama lingered like July’s rain clouds – ready to bucket down once again on the government’s parade.
Sunak – now PM – put on a brave face as he pressed the flesh, rictus grin fixed trying to project optimism and confidence.
But he’s had a bruising few weeks.
A poll today for Times Radio showed just 1 in 4 voters think he’s actually better than Johnson – and YouGov have Labour 25 points ahead.
Publicly No10 aides insist “the boss” is upbeat and – after a short break expected to be in Spain – will be back fighting fit after the holidays ready to hit the conference season.
“There’s so much he still wants and needs to do,” says one. “It’s tough but he is getting on with it.”
But privately the mood is grim. “We will keep buggering on” says one Sunak ally, “but the dial isn’t moving.”
Talk of a leader on the brink has long since faded and politicians are enjoying a period of relative calm.
Even the most unhinged of Tory MPs know there’s no credible chance of replacing their leader for a fourth time in parliament.
So Sunak is safe – but his troops fear the war is lost.
As guests swilled champagne and G&Ts there was an air of sadness at the usually riotous party held by Tory bible The Spectator.
An unshakable feeling has started developing in the Tory ranks: That their possible, albeit narrow, path to election victory has suffered a series of recent knocks.
GROWING JITTERS
Six months on from Sunak launching his five priorities, there are growing jitters that progress has stalled.
Inflation remains stubbornly high, the NHS still groans under a 7.4million backlog, and efforts to “stop the boats” are being hamstrung in the courts and House of Lords.
“Things aren’t great,” one Tory MP says. “The ‘grown ups’ are supposedly back in charge, but what have we really got to show for it?”
One Cabinet minister privately boasts they are already meeting headhunters to line up a cosy boardroom gig next year.
Sunak in Westminster this week
Another Tory MP fears the government is wasting precious time to shift the polls and wants Sunak to “just go for it”.
“They’ve got nothing to lose at this point,” they say. “Roll the dice, be bold, because time is running out.”
Red Wall Conservatives are getting especially impatient on the lack of progress to bring down legal migration, and blame Jeremy Hunt for resisting a tougher stance.
“Rishi needs to understand we are not the same party as we were in 2010,” says one.
“It’s not a case of ‘one more heave and we’ll win Bath and Putney’. We need to be focusing on the voters Boris won us in 2019. And a large part of that is immigration, whatever the one-nation lot may say.”
Our revelations today that No10 binned a Home Office blueprint to reduce net migration to pre-2019 levels will only fuel frustration.
Despite the many grumblings there is no serious talk of rebellion. At a launch of the New Conservatives caucus of right-wingers this week, MPs were falling over each other to stress their loyalty to the PM.
Nevertheless next week Sunak will schmooze the parliamentary party at a barbecue in the No10 garden as he braces for a series of bruising by-elections.
In a fortnight he will face three by-elections on the same day, with the possibility of two more in the coming months.
Expectation among Tory strategists is that they should be ready to lose all five.
BoJo’s old seat of Uxbridge – where Sadiq Khan’s ULEZ expansion is loathed – could be the only saving grace.
‘FIGHTING MODE’
But it’s still all hands to the pump.
“The party is in fighting mode and we’re not giving up,” one government adviser says.
On Thursday Cabinet aides were summoned into Conservative HQ and given marching orders to get out on the campaign stump.
To focus minds they were given a presentation from the party’s voter guru Chris Scott, which showed polling of people’s perceptions of individual Tory MPs, who were anonymised.
“It wasn’t great, but it wasn’t that bad”, says one attendee.
“People are still pretty pissed off with us because of what’s happened in the past year,” says another.
To turn things around Conservative bosses have revived the election “calling centre” in the building.
Sunak has been leading from the front and took part in a phone canvassing session on Thursday night alongside pizza-fuelled activists.
But efforts to ramp up output have been dogged by recent tiffs between the party’s press office and research department.
Labour MPs and aides, meanwhile, have been circulating the Westminster parties in greater numbers and with a newfound swagger.
For the first time in a while they actually believe they can win.
“Some of us are now daring to think about what life would look like in government,” says one.
That sense of confidence was present this week as Sir Keir Starmer unveiled his fifth and final mission to give children opportunities.
“I see this mission as our core purpose and my personal cause,” he said in Kent.
Ironically it was also a rare moment of high spirits for Tory MPs, whose WhatsApp group lit up with people across the party sharing the government’s record on schools and complimenting each other.
“It was the first moment of buoyancy and us all rallying together that we’ve had in a while”, one Conservative says.
While Starmer’s missions have copped some internal criticism for being too wordy and vague, team Starmer insists they are broadly happy with how they have landed.
Those around Sir Keir are desperate to keep up the momentum and have planned a “wrap-up tour” for later this summer.
One senior aide says: “We’ve got to keep hammering them into people’s heads. This is not the end and Keir will be travelling around marginal seats this summer reminding people of the pledges.”
They are also acutely aware of several of Starmer’s “Achilles heels”.
The Welsh Labour government is a constant thorn in his side, with Starmer often pressed on whether he endorses First Minister Mark Drakeford’s actions.
He has also tried to neutralise claims of tacit support for Just Stop Oil, branding them an “arrogant” mob wrecking people’s summer.
Labour is throwing the kitchen sink at the upcoming by-elections and leaving nothing to chance.
Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Kyle has been tasked with heading up the Mid-Bedfordshire campaign and is said to have blocked out most of his summer despite Nadine Dorries having not yet resigned.
Both sides are acutely aware how crucial the next few months are – and that this time next year they might not just be knocking back the rosé, but knocking on doors in the depths of a campaign.
And as any Westminster wag will tell you – the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Sir Keir Starmer outlining his fifth and final mission this week
