Academic Researchers Support Efficient Market Hypothesis for Bitcoin Trading
A team of academic researchers from the International Hellenic University and Democritus University of Thrace in Greece recently published a paper supporting the "efficient market hypothesis" (EMH) for Bitcoin trading. This controversial theory claims that an asset's share price reflects its fair market value and all applicable market information.
Outperforming the Hodl Strategy
The researchers claim that their models, based on EMH, were able to generate higher profits than the traditional hodl strategy by nearly 300% in simulated crypto portfolios. According to their research paper, these models gave investors the ability to record higher profits than they would have achieved with the well-known buy and hold strategy.
Debating the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Proponents of EMH argue that it is impossible to outperform the market by trying to time it or by predicting winning stocks intuitively. They suggest that investors should instead put their funds in low-cost passive portfolios. However, opponents of EMH point out that successful investors like Warren Buffet have made careers out of beating the market.
Applying EMH to Cryptocurrency Trading
The Greek research team believes that EMH can be applied to cryptocurrency trading as a replacement for the hodling approach to avoiding market volatility. To test this, they developed four distinct artificial intelligence models trained with multiple data sets. After training and testing, they selected models optimized against both beat the market and hodling strategies.
Impressive Results
The team's optimal model beat baseline returns by as much as 297%, offering support for the effectiveness of EMH in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading. However, it is important to note that the research was conducted using historical data and simulated portfolio management.
Controversial Findings
While this groundbreaking study provides empirical evidence in favor of EMH, it may not be enough to convince those who are skeptical of its efficacy. Nevertheless, it opens up new possibilities for using EMH as a tool for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency traders.
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