Bitcoin Can Reach $46K by 2024 Halving, Says Filbfilb

Bitcoin analyst Filbfilb predicts a cathartic effect on BTC price performance

Veteran analyst Filbfilb believes that despite heading lower in between, Bitcoin has a chance to end 2023 at $35,000. In an interview with Cointelegraph, the co-founder of trading suite Decentrader reveals some BTC price targets that should resonate with the long-term holder base.

Bitcoin faces obstacles to its current uptrend

Although Bitcoin faces multiple obstacles to its current uptrend, Filbfilb predicts that the April 2024 block subsidy halving will have a cathartic effect on BTC price performance. He even suggests that BTC/USD could trade as high as $46,000 by that time. However, losses are "likely" to come next.

Filbfilb expects BTC price dip to low $20,000 range

Filbfilb predicts that a BTC price dip to the low $20,000s range is likely on short timeframes. He compares this potential dip to the lows seen following the FTX crash in avoiding a black swan event.

Price reversal expected in Q4 as miners "buy the rumor" on the halving

Based on previous cycles, Filbfilb expects a reversal in BTC's price behavior in Q4 as miners and smart investors "buy the rumor" on the halving. He suggests that new emitted supply to the market will contract, while speculative demand will increase.

No direct correlation between hash rate and price, says Filbfilb

Filbfilb states that there has been no direct correlation between hash rate and price. Despite the hash rate reaching new highs, he does not believe it directly affects the price of Bitcoin.

Comparison of BTC price action to previous pre-halving years

Filbfilb notes that there has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average this year, which is a notable difference compared to previous pre-halving years. However, the uptick from the 2022 lows is in line with what has been seen before.

BTC spot ETF approval likely in the future, says Filbfilb

Filbfilb believes that the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit outcome is significant and suggests that a U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF approval is on the horizon. He points to institutional asset managers like BlackRock filing for ETFs, indicating that they anticipate its approval.

Inflation and rates impact on Bitcoin post-halving

Filbfilb expects that post-halving next year, the longer inflation and rates remain high, the less capital will seek investments like Bitcoin. He suggests that higher cost of capital makes riskier assets less attractive.

Noise-free metrics for tracking BTC price, according to Filbfilb

Filbfilb prefers to look at directional price momentum and market positioning (such as long/short ratios, funding rates, and open interest) when determining shorter-term BTC price moves. He sees these metrics as noise-free.

BTC price target for end of the year and 2024 halving

Filbfilb's BTC price target for the end of the year is around $35,000. He also predicts that BTC could reach as high as $46,000 before the 2024 halving in Q1.

Altcoins of interest in the new cycle

While Filbfilb is currently focused on Bitcoin, he expects altcoins to make their move after the halving. He suggests that XRP could do well next cycle due to its legal case with the SEC and its catch-up in market share. He also does not rule out a potential resurgence of Dogecoin, especially if Elon Musk integrates crypto into his projects.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.