Analysts are expressing doubts that the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will be enough to completely revive the markets from its winter slump. While the news of BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, listed as IBTC on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, caused a surge of over 14% on Oct. 24, some experts believe that the rally may not be sustainable in the long term.
High expectations for Bitcoin price action
The recent market blips following the news of the spot Bitcoin ETF have given some insights into how the price of Bitcoin may react if the ETF is approved. Pseudonymous trader TheFlowHorse, who has a large following on X, predicts that the approval of the ETF will likely drive prices significantly upward, potentially matching or surpassing the previous rallies. However, Horse also anticipates an eventual retrace in the mid-term due to the heavy crowding of eager investors chasing the news.
Cautious stance and uncertain future
Analysts Tony Sycamore and Rachel Lucas have differing views on the potential impact of the ETF approval. Sycamore expects Bitcoin to continue surging to new yearly highs on the day of the announcement, while Lucas believes that the approval will act as a catalyst for the traditional finance sector. However, both analysts acknowledge that a full-scale trend reversal for Bitcoin is unlikely, given the current interest rates and the speculative nature of the asset. Analyst Tina Teng also emphasizes the lack of fundamentals and quantitative valuation for Bitcoin, urging caution in expecting an all-out trend reversal.
Timing and uncertainty of approval
The timing and certainty of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval remain uncertain. While some analysts believe that approval could arrive within the next few months, others speculate that SEC Chair Gary Gensler may delay or deny the applications. Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 90% chance of approval by Jan. 10 next year.
