THE third Covid peak will hit the young just weeks after Freedom Day, experts have warned.
Sage experts urged the Government to be ready to slam on the brakes on lockdown if cases rocket and hospitals struggle.
They warned that while it will soon be left to the general public to use common sense to live alongside Covid, there should be a plan to reverse the lifting if it doesn’t go well.
Senior Government advisers insist there must be an NHS capacity red line drawn up by ministers – which would see freedoms swiftly limited if the limit was neared.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid confirmed this afternoon the ending of lockdown will go ahead in a week’s time, despite infections rising throughout Britain.
The Delta variant is continuing to spread, with daily cases in the 30,000’s – but crucially deaths have stayed low and hospitalisations are not increasing at the same rate.
However, senior advisers have warned if the functioning of the NHS is impacted too greatly – if ICU and ventilator bed numbers become high – the Government must be ready to backpedal.
In key announcements:
- Large venues like nightclubs will be urged to use “Covid certification”
- Ministers will encourage a “gradual return” to the workplace this summer
- Masks will be recommended in crowded settings like public transport
- A review of all the rules will take place before September 23
- Scientists expect Covid cases, hospitalisations and deaths to go up
- New advice for the most vulnerable people will be issued imminently
Experts predict the peak will arrive a few weeks after July 19, around mid-August, with young unvaccinated people engulfed in the wave.
They estimate the daily death toll could reach 100 to 200 by mid-August, and 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions each day.
Although another expert, Professor Tim Spector suggested the current wave may have already peaked.
Sage also warned there will be a fourth winter wave, but probably smaller than that of winter 2020, which forced the country back into lockdown.
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To see us out of lockdown safely, the experts urged Brits to keep up habits from the past year – such as wearing masks, working from home where possible and not mixing with large groups indoors.
Forgetting these instantly and rushing to get back to pre-pandemic “normal” life will see a huge peak of cases within a month, they warn in documents.
This won’t cause a huge amount of deaths, thanks to the vaccines, but could see the NHS stretched once more as beds fill up.
Up to around 4,800 hospitalisations-a-day could occur in four weeks if Brits immediately ditch all the social distancing practises.
Whereas if we cautiously creep back to the life we have longed to return to, the NHS will be able to cope far better, they said.
Around 500 to 950 daily hospital admissions would instead be seen, with a gradual and more careful amble back to pre-pandemic levels seven months after Freedom Day.
GO STEADY
The experts are urging the public to “go slow” once restrictions lift on July 19, to curb infections and cut the number of people who will go on to die from Covid.
Professor Chris Whitty also begged Brits to “go slowly, and steadily and cautiously” upon release from lockdown.
And Sir Patrick Vallance added, at a Downing Street press conference: “There is no doubt that step four will bring an increase in spread of infection.
“The risk of hospitalisation is something like fourfold what it was, but it still exists if behaviour returns to pre-pandemic levels that’ll be a very big rise.
“We can’t escape that there will be a rise in hospitalisation levels.”
Sage documents used by the Government to make the final decision to unlock said: “If the aim is to avoid the NHS becoming overwhelmed, Sage advises that it is important to understand the impact of different levels of admissions on NHS function and have appropriate contingency plans in place. “
The scientists said the link between infections, hospitalisations and deaths has not been “broken” by the vaccines – just “changed very much in our favour”.
They pointed out most cases are now among younger people who have not been fully vaccinated. They are less likely to suffer serious disease and death than older groups.
In its report to the government, advisory group SPI-MO said infections “will almost certainly remain extremely high for at least the rest of the summer”.
But it added: “The next peak in deaths will almost certainly be considerably smaller than that of January 2021. The scale of the next wave in hospital admissions is highly uncertain.
“While most modelled scenarios have peaks lower than in January 2021, a resurgence of this scale of hospitalisations cannot be ruled out.”
After 18 months of lockdown Mr Javid told MPs the Government will be ploughing ahead with the fourth and final step of the roadmap next week.
He said the four crucial tests – the vaccine rollout continues at pace; jabs are cutting serious illness; infections don’t risk crippling the NHS; there are no emerging worrying variants – have been passed.
Mr Javid told MPs: “We’ve looked closely at the data against these four tests and we firmly believe that this is the right time to get our nation closer to normal.
“So we will move to the next stage of our roadmap on July. And to those who say why take this step now – I say, if not now, when?”
He added people should continue to wear masks in some indoors settings after the next stage of the Government’s road map for reopening commences on July 19.
The Health Secretary told the Commons face coverings were still “recommended” in crowded indoor areas even after legal guidance on their use expires.
The Prime Minister echoed this later in his statement to the nation from No 10.
Mr Javid said: “As we make these changes, it is so important that people act with caution and with personal responsibility.
“For example, everyone should return to work gradually if they are currently working from home; they should try to meet people outside where possible; and it is expected and recommended that people should wear face coverings, unless they are exempt, in crowded indoor settings.”
