UPGRADING Covid-hit London to Tier 3 in the run up to Christmas could cost around 150,000 key jobs, industry experts warn.
Kate Nicholls, chief exec of UK Hospitality, said closing pubs, restaurants and hotels would deliver a “killer blow” to hundreds of struggling businesses.
The warning came after the capital’s mayor said it could be plunged into the highest tier as early as next week as cases continue to rise.
Sadiq Khan said unless people stick to the rules then “tougher restrictions” could be announced by December 16.
Ms Nicholls said imposing Tier 3 restrictions would hammer those already struggling to attract customers during the crucial festive period.
“We know that around 800,000 people work in the hospitality sector in London,” she told the Telegraph.
“Even without Tier 3, we think the workforce will shrink by around 25 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“But if the Government puts us into Tier 3, we believe the number will drop to 60 per cent or perhaps even lower. That would mean a loss of up to 150,000 more jobs.
“It would be a killer blow for London – especially central London – if the city goes into Tier 3.”
On Wednesday, one public health expert said the capital needs to enter Tier 3 “within 48 hours” or risk a “terrible situation” over Christmas.
Professor John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, said: “[The government] needs to decide in the next 48 hours whether to move London into Tier 3 otherwise they really risk a terrible situation for London, with deaths going up during the Christmas period.”
He also warned: “They might have to go to complete lockdown.”
The city was placed into Tier 2 when England exited its national lockdown a fortnight ago – but rates of infection have been climbing since before then.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock spoke of “worrying signs” in London on Tuesday.
The city has now overtaken the north-east and north-west where most regions are subject to tier three rules.
In the north-west, which had seen the most infections in the UK for a long time, the rate is down to 130 per 100,000 – but London is now at 177 cases per 100,000 people.
Cases could continue rising as Londoners flock to bars and shops now restrictions have eased.
Mayor Khan added: “The number of cases in London are rising again and if we don’t all work together now we may face tougher restrictions across the capital.
“Londoners have worked incredibly hard to help bring down the number of cases before, but we must not risk undoing all the sacrifices that have been made by lowering our guard and allowing cases to rise further ahead of Christmas.”
A spokesman for Mr Khan said people in the capital must follow the rules or risk being placed into a Tier 3 lockdown.
“If we begin to act like this virus has gone away we could see a devastating further surge in cases at a time of year when our NHS is already under enough pressure,” the spokesman said.
“The number-one way to look out for our loved ones and support local businesses in this festive season is to follow the rules and do all we can to avoid going back into tougher restrictions, later this month or any time in the future.”
The PM has promised some Tier 3 areas with lower rates or a trend of declining cases that they could drop down a tier in next week’s review.
Any tier changes would come into effect on December 19.
But Mayor Khan said plunging the city into the most extreme tier would be “catastrophic” to businesses already struggling under the Covid pandemic.
The Times reports sources said Tier 3 was “more than likely” if the cases continue to shoot up.
Pessimistic Whitehall sources said even if cases levelled off, there was “almost certainly” no way Tier 3 could be avoided.
But London MPs are expected to push back against the measures hard with cases varying widely from borough to borough.
Insiders are calling for low-infection suburbs to be exempt from the restrictions.
