Is my area moving into Tier 3? The Covid hotspots at risk as infections rise in 62 local authorities

COVID cases are on the rise in 62 local authorities in England just days before the revision of the tier system.

It puts them at risk of moving from Tier 2 to Tier 3 in the lead up to Christmas, which would see the closure of pubs and restaurants.

The speed at which infections are increasing is one of the key criteria ministers use to decide which areas need tougher restrictions.

It means London, Essex, and other authorities in the south are potentially at risk of bumping up to the “high alert level”.

They currently fall under Tier 2 restrictions, which still allows for people to meet friends outdoors in groups of six, such as in pub gardens.

The highest infection rates in London are in Havering, Barking and Dagenham and Waltham Forest – all in the top 10 Covid hotspots of England.

While in Essex, the virus is spreading fast in Thurrock, which has the 13th highest rate in the whole of England, and Southend-on-Sea, at 28th place.

At last night’s Downing Street Briefing, the Health Secretary Matt Hancock admitted he was particularly concerned about the number of case in London and Essex, as well as Kent, which is already in Tier 3.

London mayor Sadiq Khan said London is at a “serious tipping point” in the coronavirus outbreak, and the capital should “prepare for additional restrictions”.

A third of places with worsening outbreaks are in London, feared to be hurtling towards Tier 3 to control the spread of the virus in the capital.

London MPs are in urgent talks with health ministers to discuss the next best step for the capital, with the toughest restrictions predicted to cause 150,000 job losses.

London has the worst infection rate of all nine regions in the UK – almost 200 cases per 100,0000 people.

However, Professor Tim Spector said Covid-19 rates in the over 60s in London are “not yet worrying”.

The scientist tracks the outbreak in the UK using the Covid Symptom Study app.

The Government considers cases in the over 60s along with how many people are in hospital for deciding tiers – not just case numbers.


Is my area moving into Tier 3? The Covid hotspots at risk as infections rise in 62 local authorities
Crowds of shoppers are seen on Regents street on December 6

The fastest rise by far is among secondary school age children, while the rate among adults is broadly flat. 

However, Mr Hancock would not pre-empt whether London would be bumped into the highest alert on December 16, the first review of the tiered system.

The data shows almost every place seeing worsening outbreaks are in the south of England.

Bracknell Forest, Central Bedfordshire and Southend-on-Sea saw cases increase by the most.

Cases rose by at least 50 per cent in each of those authorities in the week to December 6, Public Health England (PHE) data shows.

Meanwhile, the majority of those under the toughest restrictions in the north have shown an impressive turnaround.

It suggests the Tier 3 restrictions in the North West, Yorkshire, North East and Midlands have worked in suppressing the virus.

Professor Chris Whitty, England’s Chief Medical Officer, praised the “remarkable” work that has been done in the Midlands and North at the press briefing last night.

Where are cases growing the most?

The data comes from PHE’s Covid-19 and flu surveillance report, published every Thursday.

For each area, cases are given per 100,000 people which can be compared with previous weeks.

But the data is only preliminary and may change slightly over time.

The early data shows 62 areas of England saw a rise in infection rates in the week to December 6, even if if was just by a small percentage.

The largest jump in cases was recorded in Bracknell Forest, Berkshire, south England. Cases went up by 70 per cent, from 97 cases per 100,000 to 166.

For comparison, it’s infection rate is still several times lower than Medway, at the top with 576 new cases per 100,000.

Sixteen places in England saw new case rates jump up by more than a third, compared to only one the week prior (to November 29).

These were Bracknell Forest, Milton Keynes, Greenwich, Bath and North East Somerset, Essex, Havering, Thurrock, East Sussex, Wokingham, Harrow, Waltham Forest, Haringey, Enfield, Southend-on-Sea, Hackney and City of London and Central Bedfordshire.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the scale, the coronavirus epidemic continues to improve in the Isle of Wight, where cases dropped by 45 per cent.

The island’s infection rate is just 16 cases per 100,000. It is the only place in Tier 1, alongside Cornwall and Isle of Scilly, which also saw a 23 per cent reduction.

After Medway, Havering in London has the second highest case rate in all of England, at 389 per 100,000.

Of the 10 current Covid “hotspots”, six are in London.

The North-South split

Of the 62 local authorities with a rise in cases, 52 were in the south or west of England.

Three places – Norfolk, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough – were in the East of England, with Sunderland in the North East.

Two authorities were each in Yorkshire (Middlesborough and Doncaster), the Midlands (Rutland and Leicestershire) and the North West (Cumbria and Bury).

It means practically the whole of the north of England has continued on a downward slope of cases.

But sadly, the millions living there will be subject to at least another week of Tier 3 restrictions, after being put under the “highest alert level” on December 2.

At the time, ministers viewed the coronavirus outbreak in those areas as too serious to avoid Tier 3.

But this could be reversed on December 16, when the first revision of the tiered system takes place, in light of positive data.

The majority of the South and South West are in currently in Tier 2, other than Kent, Bristol and Somerset.

But the data suggests that could soon change.

London heading for Tier 3

The 62 places with a jump in cases includes 23 of London’s 32 boroughs, amid fears the capital cannot avoid tougher restrictions.

The biggest rises (more than a third) were seen in Hackney and City of London, Enfield, Haringey, Waltham Forest, Harrow, Havering and Greenwich.

Cases also jumped by five to 31 per cent in Kingston upon Thames, Bromley, Southwark, Sutton, Croydon, Islington, Tower Hamlets, Kensington and Chelsea, Barking and Dagenham, Lewisham, Newham, Wandsworth and Hillingdon.

Richmond upon Thames, Camden and Westminster all reported less than a five per cent rise week-on-week.

It comes as MPs from the capital have urgent crunch talks with health ministers this afternoon amid concern for spiralling cases, ITV’s political correspondent Shehab Khan reported on Twitter.

The harshest coronavirus restrictions would be “catastrophic” for London, mayor Sadiq Khan said as he pleaded with people to abide by the rules.

Mr Khan told the PA news agency: “I think it’s really important we do all we can to avoid the virus spreading, to avoid going into Tier 3.”

Under England’s toughest level of restrictions pubs and restaurants would only be able to offer takeaway services and households would be banned from mixing except in certain outdoor spaces such as parks.

People would also be urged to avoid travelling outside the area and fans would again be banned from sporting events.

Mr Khan said: “Tier 3 would be catastrophic to our hospitality sector – pubs, bars, restaurants would be seriously affected, and our cultural venues.

“Londoners have made huge sacrifices over the last few weeks and months.

“It’s really important, leading up to Christmas where the rules will be relaxed even more, we do all we can to keep ourselves safe, our families safe but also don’t allow the NHS to be overwhelmed in January.”

Data from PA analysis reveals twelve of London’s 32 boroughs have higher infection rates than Birmingham, which is under Tier 3.

More than half of London (19 boroughs) diagnosed more cases than Manchester (169.8 per 100,000) in the week to December 5.

Local health chiefs and officials in Manchester have begged to be released from tough restrictions that have been in place since summer because they are seeing cases several times lower.

Nearly all London boroughs (28) have a higher case rate than Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

Professor Spector, the lead scientist tracking the virus using the ZOE COVID Symptom Study app, said London should not be put in Tier 3.

Speaking at a virtual Royal Society of Medicine briefing today, he said the North, East and South West of England were “doing really well”.

“But London, the decrease has stopped and is either flat or slightly increasing,” he said.

“Most cases are in the north of London at the moment. But it would be a big mistake if London goes into Tier 3.

“I think everybody should be coming down a tier and staying somewhere between Tier 1 and 2 until April, before we see the vaccine taking effect.

“This on-off business is a total disaster and we should absolutely avoid it.”

However, Professor John Ashton, a former regional director of public health for north-west England, warned action must be taken for the capital quickly.

He told The Telegraph on December 9: “[The government] needs to decide in the next 48 hours whether to move London into tier 3 otherwise they really risk a terrible situation for London, with deaths going up during the Christmas period.”

He also warned: “They might have to go to complete lockdown.”