Bitcoin retracing? Here are the odds of it returning to $28K

In today’s Market Report episode, analyst and writer Marcel Pechman covers the regulatory environment that has been limiting Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside and the odds of a dump at $28,000. The show airs every Tuesday on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

The first news article discussed is crypto exchange Bittrex and its founder being charged by the SEC. More importantly, United States Securities and Exchange Commission Enforcement Division Director Gurbir Grewal said that such “action should also send a message to other non-compliant crypto market intermediaries.”

In Pechman’s opinion, that’s an explicit reference to Binance, Bybit and OKX, which have notoriously taken U.S. clients through VPN and other evasive strategies. Marcel does not believe that the SEC has a case besides a multimillion-dollar fine and forcing Bittrex to shut down operations in the U.S.

On to the show’s next topic, Pechman discusses the U.S. Congress draft stablecoin bill. The scary part? Failure to register as an issuer could result in up to five years in prison. Moreover, according to the draft bill, “issuers out of the U.S. would have to seek registration to do business in the country.”

The proposal also places a “two-year ban on issuing, creating, or originating stablecoins not backed by tangible assets.” In Pechman’s view, there’s a clear statement: Legislators do not want algorithmic-backed stablecoins or any operation that is not backed by U.S. dollars or U.S.-denominated, short-term bonds.

But, according to Pechman, there is no reason to panic-sell any stablecoin solely based on this. Sure, there could be impacts for Tether (USDT) and Dai (DAI), but that is subject to voting and court rulings.

In the last part of The Market Report, Pechman argues whether the U.S. court has any real power over Justin Sun, Tron’s founder. Pechman illustrates why this move shows desperation by regulators and how coincidental it is that multiple agencies are pressing charges on crypto businesses and payment processors over five years after their launch.

Given the extreme regulatory FUD scenario, Pechman would not be surprised if Bitcoin retests the $28,000 level.

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