Bitcoin price drop in 3, 2...1? Fear and Greed Index nears dangerous record high

Bitcoin (BTC) is all but guaranteed a price drop if one sentiment metric is right about the state of the market. 

On Nov. 19, with BTC/USD lingering at $17,500, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 94, nearly matching its all-time high of 95 points out of 100 on June 26, 2019.

Fear & Greed hits “greediest” in 17 months

Compiled used multiple estimates of investor sentiment, Fear & Greed delivers a normalized score out of 100 to gauge how overbought or oversold cryptocurrency markets really are. The closer to 100, the more chance that the market is due for a pullback.

Heavily tied to price action, the Index has succeeded in calling price tops with considerable accuracy since its initiation in early 2018.

“The crypto market behaviour is very emotional. People tend to get greedy when the market is rising which results in FOMO (Fear of missing out),” developers explain on the metric’s official website.

“Also, people often sell their coins in irrational reaction of seeing red numbers. With our Fear and Greed Index, we try to save you from your own emotional overreations.”

In late June last year, the index hit its highest level ever — 95/100 — and at press time on Thursday, the record was just a single point higher than current readings.

Cointelegraph Markets analyst filbfilb meanwhile highlighted a "very similar" market structure between 2020 and 2019.

Can strong hands avert a dip?

As Cointelegraph reported, a host of charts tracking Bitcoin market activity have hit all-time highs this week, with their impact decidedly more bullish.

Analysts have broadly stopped short of calling the current bull run too hasty, given its “organic” nature, in the words of statistician Willy Woo, compared with its clip to all-time highs in 2017.

In principle, Woo and others argue, strong hands are buying up the supply this year, while amateurs and speculators remain on the sidelines.

That perspective is corroborated by data showing large numbers of coins leaving exchanges for cold storage and other long-term wallets, as well as whales' buying activity.