Bitcoin ‘overreacting’ as SEC returns ETF filings, BTC price dives 6%

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $30,000 after the June 30 Wall Street open as markets panicked over the fate of its first spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bureaucratic error may explain Bitcoin ETF filing hiccup

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price action hurtling downward, briefly reaching $29,500.

The volatility accompanied a report that United States regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission had refused applications for the first Bitcoin spot-price ETF.

Those applications had kickstarted the latest BTC price rebound, one which had taken the largest cryptocurrency to new yearly highs.

Related: Why approving a Bitcoin ETF might unleash $18B in sell-pressure

Claims by The Wall Street Journal, which cited an unidentified source, that they had now been returned, saw BTC/USD hit nine-day lows before rebounding to circle $30,000.

The original report outlined the specific circumstances of the applications’ rejection, and reacting, market observers suggested that this amounted to little more than a technicality.

The WSJ stated that “the SEC told the exchanges that it returned the filings because they didn’t name the spot bitcoin exchange with which they are expected to have a ‘surveillance-sharing agreement’ or provide enough information about the details of those surveillance arrangements.”

“Asset managers can update the language and refile,” it added.

Think the market is overreacting here, seems like the "denial" is just a technicality and Blackrock/Fidelity just have to refile naming Coinbase as the exchange that they have a "surveillance-sharing agreement" with

— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) June 30, 2023

“This could even be interpreted that the SEC are indicating to BlackRock, what they need to do, to get this across the line and approved... which is also positive,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro argued in a more optimistic take.

Rate hike bets surge despite PCE data beating expectations

Bitcoin nonetheless traded down over $1,000 versus the day's highs at the time of writing.

Related: Bitcoin speculators send 35K BTC to exchanges in new ‘elation inflow’

Its losses come at a prescient time, with the monthly and quarterly candle close due in a matter of hours.

Separately, U.S. macroeconomic data provided further confusion for risk asset markets more broadly. 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print came in lower than expected and even managed its biggest drop in a year. 

BREAKING: PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, FALLS to 3.8%, below expectations of 4.6%.

Core PCE inflation is now at 4.6%, also below expectations of 4.7%.

This is the largest monthly drop this year.

The Fed may finally be winning the fight against inflation.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 30, 2023

Despite signals that inflation is slowing, however, markets began to price in a bigger chance of interest rate hikes returning in July.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a 25-basis-point hike next at nearly 90%.

Responding, financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter argued that inflation was simply too high despite the result.

“Interest rate expectations are RISING after the release of PCE inflation data this morning. But why?” it queried.

“Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, is now UNCHANGED since December 2022. Core PCE inflation is now at 4.6% and still a major problem for the Fed.”

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