It’s right – says Paul Hunter
THIS lockdown in all but name is absolutely the right thing for Boris Johnson to do.
I was expecting bad news from the Prime Minister yesterday.
But not THIS bad.
It means I am under no doubt whatsoever that these restrictions — including restrictions on people travelling out of Tier 4 areas — are absolutely the right thing to do.
It was what Boris said that scared me more than anything else.
The line that stood out for me was when he said the estimated R value could rise by 0.4 or greater.
At that point, I knew we were stuffed.
Sadly, this lockdown had to happen. His words, in fact, have left me feeling depressed at the stark reality of what we face.
Nothing is certain other than death and taxes but it’s almost inevitable the virus will continue to spread throughout the UK — and we are likely to see an acceleration of this happening.
Any hope of getting this virus under control before we roll out the vaccine has gone.
The fact is, this latest strain is spreading at a much faster rate than anyone could have predicted.
We must now face the reality that we will probably struggle to control the virus between now and next summer.
At the moment, this new strain seems to be mainly in London and the South East. But there is evidence it is already spreading.
I predict the Midlands, sadly, may be next. If you look at the figures, it’s even possible the South West might be starting to kick off in terms of increases.
We can expect sudden and dramatic rises in most parts of the country over the coming weeks.
We have run out of options on how to control this.
The only thing we can do now is try to prevent it from getting to other parts of the country.
We will not stop it entirely. But we can delay it.
Right now we are facing the perfect storm.
Grave times
This time of year is always the biggest challenge for the NHS — and this new and highly transmissible form of the virus has appeared almost out of nowhere.
I think the seeds of this strain can be traced back to last summer.
If we had managed to get the numbers down more during this period it would have been less likely to mutate.
Every time someone spreads the infection, there is a chance it will mutate.
If we had tried harder during the summer, we might have avoided this.
And if we’d had a better track-and-trace system, we might have avoided it as well.
But sadly, we are where we are — and that’s lockdown. I’m sure our neighbouring countries are looking very closely at what’s happening here — and they might well get scared about allowing Brits to visit.
Nobody wants to cancel Christmas.
But the reality is these measures will likely increase the chances of more people living to see the next one.
People must follow the rules
It’s very difficult to predict mortality rates but if there are more infections we will be seeing more deaths.
Right from the start, I have been pointing out that public health issues are not the only concern.
I still believe our children’s education must be the number one priority.
But there is nothing else we can do than this course of action. I hope it will help.
I’m not convinced, however, it will be enough.
If you ask me how long these restrictions are likely to be in place, my answer is that I wouldn’t expect them to be lifted any time soon.
These are very grave times indeed. There is only one way out of this, ultimately, and that is the vaccine.
Until then, it’s essential people follow the rules.
It’s wrong – says Christopher Snowdon
AT the start of 2020, Boris Johnson told us that this would be: “A great year for Britain.”
It ended with him cancelling Christmas for around 20million people and severely restricting it for many millions more.
There are no good decisions in a pandemic and the Prime Minister finds himself in an agonising position.
The number of Covid cases has risen sharply in parts of London, Kent and Essex in recent days.
Across England, the number of daily infections is higher than it was when we locked down in November.
Talk of a more virulent strain of Covid-19 stalking the South East just days before Christmas was the last thing we needed.
Given the trends in the infection and hospital data, the writing has been on the wall for a third lockdown in England for some time.
Most of us were resigned to being told to stay at home in January when it’s cold, we’re skint, and nobody goes out much anyway.
A Christmas lockdown is a different proposition altogether.
It was never going to be a normal Christmas.
Pubs and restaurants are closed in most of the country and some will never open again.
We were to be restricted to seeing no more than two other households.
A quiet Christmas was what Boris recommended and that is what most of us had planned.
Many of us had been self-isolating in advance to stay on the safe side before seeing older relatives. We didn’t need the Government to tell us.
Hope snuffed out
A muted Christmas was the only thing millions of us had to look forward to after nine months of heavy restrictions and prospects of another lockdown on the horizon.
That glimmer of hope has now been snuffed out.
The economy has already been shattered.
The cancellation of Christmas will have a similar impact on personal well-being and mental health, not least on that of children.
Make no mistake, this lockdown will also have a devastating effect on our already creaking economy, too.
Sage has won again. For these zealots, Christmas is just a couple of Bank Holidays and a roast dinner.
Their recent suggestion that Christmas be moved to summer shows how out of touch they are.
It is not their job to worry about the happiness and prosperity of the nation, and they don’t.
Imposing a lockdown at Christmas will be the greatest test yet of the Government’s authority — and of the public’s patience.
There were already signs of consent breaking down before yesterday’s announcement.
Case numbers were rising in London and other parts of the country before lockdown ended, and have been rising in several Tier 3 areas for weeks.
This all suggests that a significant number of people have simply had enough.
Will they stand for the state forbidding them from cele- brating the biggest cultural and religious festival of the year?
Did Boris Johnson have a choice? Was there an alternative? I think there was.
Nobody wants to “kill granny”, as Matt Hancock put it.
The British public are more sensible than Sage gives them credit for.
Families would have seen one or two other households at most.
Pub crawls were off the agenda.
People would have been careful, taking responsibility for their health and that of their loved ones.
Of course there would have been some infections as a result of the rules being temporarily relaxed, but few would have complained too much about a post-Christmas lockdown to prevent exponential growth.
If Christmas was the carrot and a third lockdown was the stick, we are now being offered only the stick.
Now is the winter of our discontent. A few days ago, Boris Johnson said it would be “frankly inhuman” to cancel Christmas.
He was right — and he may never be forgiven.
