BORIS Johnson’s fate hinges on Sue Gray’s report into Downing Street parties – which could be released at any moment.
The PM has staked his political life on the probe after begging rebellious Tory MPs to wait for its findings before moving against him.
Mr Johnson has vowed to fight to the bitter end to stay in No10, and will contest any vote in his leadership.
But his career could be curtains if enough Conservative backbenchers decide they want him out.
The path to survival, resignation and regicide hangs on a knife edge – and boil down to four bombshell possible outcomes.
1. BORIS RESIGNS
The Sue Gray report into Downing St parties could be so damning the PM decides to fall on his sword.
Confronted with rumoured pictures of boozy bashes in No10 while the nation was in lockdown, Mr Johnson could decide to shoulder all responsibility and quit.
Evidence he broke the ministerial code by misleading Parliament could also trigger his immediate resignation.
But this scenario is extremely unlikely. The PM is expected to fight tooth and nail to stay in office and has already insisted he did not break the law.
The Gray report is also expected to lay out the facts of what happened rather than cast judgement on criminality and matters of the sacred ministerial code.
2. BORIS ESCAPES
Once the Gray report eventually lands the PM will nervously wait to see if he is forced to fight a vote of confidence.
Disgruntled Tory MPs are waiting for publication before writing letters of no confidence to 1922 Committee chair Sir Graham Brady.
Mr Johnson will be desperately hoping to avoid the 54-letter threshold that triggers a vote in his leadership.
He will likely come out of the blocks fast with pledges to shake-up his Downing St staff and pump out more Conservative-friendly policies.
If he does tempt Tory MPs back from the brink, he would carry on as PM – but with the threat of a contest always hanging over his head.
3. BORIS WOUNDED BUT SURVIVES
But it is also likely that the Gray findings spur a flurry of letters that triggers a confidence vote in the PM.
Mr Johnson has vowed to fight any contest, which would be held the very next day.
As well as vowing to change his No10 operation and throw Tory MPs “red meat” policies, the PM’s allies would also lay out the risks of changing leader.
Loyalists are already warning that a new leader would inevitably fuel calls for a general election that Conservatives MPs don’t want right now.
Westminster wisdom believes that the PM would likely survive a contest, but suffer a big blow as dozens vote against him.
Once a confidence vote is held, there cannot be another one for at least a year.
It would mean Boris carries on as PM, but wounded with the knowledge a chunk of his MPs want him out.
4. BORIS OUSTED
There is a real possibility a majority of Tory MPs call time on Mr Johnson’s premiership and vote him out.
In such a scenario Mr Johnson would have no more tricks up his sleeve and would be forced to out of Number 10.
A Tory leadership contest would be triggered, with Mr Johnson barred from standing, to find his replacement as PM.
It is understood Mr Johnson could stay as PM while the Tories select their new leader, who would then take over.
