Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a major breakthrough that could push its price to $1 million, according to Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX. In a recent blog post titled "The Periphery," Hayes warned that Bitcoin is already sending signals about the future of the markets.
Risk of Escalation in Global Conflicts
Hayes believes that with the United States becoming increasingly involved in two new wars, the risk of escalation on a global scale is growing. This timing is significant, as the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing persistent inflation but has halted interest rate hikes. Additionally, the economy is facing a potential "bear steepener." According to Hayes, these factors are causing banks and the US war machine to rely on each other in the US Treasury market.
Hayes wrote, "If long-term US Treasury bonds offer no safety for investors, then their money will seek out alternatives. Gold, and most importantly, Bitcoin, will begin rising on true fears of global wartime inflation."
Bitcoin's Recent Rally
The recent rally in the BTC/USD pair, which has seen a 15% increase this week, is a clear indication of the market's response to global conflicts. The gains followed U.S. President Joe Biden's address to the nation regarding the Ukraine and Israel wars. Hayes emphasizes that this rally is not based on speculation about the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, but rather on Bitcoin's anticipation of a future inflationary global world war scenario.
$1 Million Bitcoin Price Tag
Hayes, known for his predictions about the post-COVID-19 global economy and subsequent inflationary era, suggests that Bitcoin could reach a price tag of $1 million. This prediction has gained traction on social media this week. The catalyst for this price increase would be yield curve control (YCC), a controlled economic move already being implemented in Japan. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve to intervene in the US Treasury market when yields get too high, effectively controlling the level of interest rates. This, in turn, would drive investors towards cryptocurrencies.
Hayes concludes, "Once everyone realizes the game we are playing, the Bitcoin and crypto bull market will be in full swing. This is the trigger, and it's time to start rotating out of short-term US Treasury bills and into crypto."
Macro Concerns and Ray Dalio's Warning
Macro concerns have been increasing this quarter, with the growing presence of global conflicts. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recently warned about the possibility of a "World War III" scenario, putting the odds at 50%. Dalio emphasized the importance of leaders exercising restraint and avoiding alliances that could draw non-fighting parties into the war.
Combined with the buzz around a potential ETF approval, Bitcoin has seen a 27% increase in October and over 100% year-to-date, according to CoinGlass data.
Note: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
