BRITAIN’S coronavirus R rate has fallen for the second week in a row- and could be as low as 0.8 in the North West, the latest official data shows.
The current R value – the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to – is estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.1.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) last week estimated the R to be between a range of 1.0 and 1.2.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially, but below that number would suggest the epidemic is shrinking.
Regional variations show the R rate may now be below the crucial value in the North West – despite being the Covid epicentre just weeks ago.
Estimates now show that ares in the South of England are seeing the worst R rates – with the range highest in the South West, South East and East of England.
It comes after data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Tracker app also revealed that the R rate is at 1.
Government scientists also caution that the R and growth rate is more likely to be somewhere in the middle of its estimated range.
It’s also important to note that Sage’s R rating estimate lags behind the Government’s daily cases and deaths data by about two weeks.
Modelling groups use different data ranges to estimate the R rate – which is why there is a difference between estimates from Sage and the ZOE app.
