A NEW Covid variant threatens the battle against the virus and is “deeply concerning” scientists have warned.
It has now been confirmed that the Omicron strain has made its way to the UK, with nine cases having been reported.
The variant is scientifically called B.1.1.529 and has been named Omicron.
The bulk of infections are in South Africa, which has seen a dramatic spike in Covid cases.
The British government has responded to the variant by reintroducing mask wearing in shops and on public transport.
Booster coronavirus vaccines are also set to be rolled out further in order to protect as many people as possible.
It has the potential to change the course of the pandemic due to its characteristics. But there is a lot scientists do not know about it.
So, what do we know?
Why is it the worst ever?
A number of experts have said this is a very concerning variant.
Prof Ewan Birney, Deputy Director General of European Molecular Biology Laboratory, said: “Early evidence from genomic surveillance in South Africa suggests that B.1.1.529 is a serious cause for concern.”
The strain has double the mutations of Delta, which grew to world dominance due to the fact it was so fast spreading.
Prof Sharon Peacock, Director of COG-UK Genomics UK Consortium, said initial observations suggest the variant can “outcompete Delta – the ‘fittest’ variant we have seen to date”.
She said the concerns were how fast cases had grown and the fact the variant had so many mutations, some of which are unknown to scientists.
When did it first appear?
UK scientists first became aware of the new strain on November 23.
Samples were uploaded on to a coronavirus variant tracking website from South Africa, Hong Kong and then Botswana.
How many cases are there?
When the variant was first announced last week there were around 100 cases that had been detected, but that number has increased over the weekend and it’s not clear how many cases there are worldwide of the stain, after UK officials claimed there could be already over 100 here.
The variant which has been detected so far in South Africa, Botswana, Hong Kong, Belgium, Israel, the UK and the Netherlands.
While there aren’t many cases as of yet, it’s the speed at which they have grown that are concerning.
Are there any cases in the UK?
The UK currently has nine confirmed cases of the variant, after Scotland reported six cases this morning.
It has reached UK shores less than a week after being reported as a concern in African countries.
Three cases of the new Omicron variant had already been identified in England – although officials fear that means hundreds could already be infected.
However, there are more than 150 further infections in the UK already, Government sources have claimed.
Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, last week said it was “always possible” the variant had reached the UK.
Asked on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme if it was in the UK, she said: “It’s always possible, we have no cases identified whatsoever yet.”
Does it spread faster?
Scientists say that by looking at the situation in South Africa, this strain appears to spread faster than Delta – but there are no conclusions yet.
Mr Javid said: “The early indication we have of this variant is it may be more transmissible than the Delta variant and the vaccines that we currently have may be less effective against it.”
Dr Hopkins said the R rate in the Gauteng province of South Africa, where the variant has clustered, had jumped to 2.
She said it was “really quite high” and similar to what would have been in the UK before the first lockdown in March 2020.
Prof James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme the variant “looks like it spreads more quickly but we do not know that”.
Will vaccines work against it?
It’s too early to say, but experts fear it could weaken vaccine efficacy by up to 40 per cent.
That estimate comes from comparing it to the Beta variant, which originated in South Africa in December 2020 and had some antibody dodging mutations.
Prof Naismith the new variant will “almost certainly” make the vaccines less effective.
Prof Neil Ferguson, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said: “The B.1.1.529 variant has an unprecedented number of mutations in the spike protein gene, the protein which is the target of most vaccines.
“There is therefore a concern that this variant may have a greater potential to escape prior immunity than previous variants.
“However, we do not yet have reliable estimates of the extent to which B.1.1.529 might be either more transmissible or more resistant to vaccines, so it is too early to be able to provide an evidence-based assessment of the risk it poses.”
If the variant is vaccine resistant, it would not render them completely useless.
Previously, scientists have said vaccines can be tweaked rather quickly in order to protect against any new strains, if it’s deemed necessary to do so.
Does it cause more severe illness?
It is not clear if the virus is able to cause more severe illness, like other variants have been found to do.
However, Mr Javid said one of the UK’s major medicines to treat sick Covid patients – Ronapreve – may not work as well against the variant. He did not reveal why.
Should we be concerned?
Scientists are “deeply concerned” about this variant, Mr Javid said, adding that it “poses a substantial risk” to the public globally.
Dr Hopskins said: “It is the most worrying [variant] we’ve seen.”
Prof Naismith said despite the “bad news” it is “not doomsday” as the UK has got better at controlling the virus.
Prof Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director, UCL Genetics Institute, UCL, said: “Scientists and politicians should try to keep a cool head, and I can see no benefit in the UK public being alarmed.”
How is it different from the other variants?
Despite only being tracked for the past three days, the virus has been identified as having 50 different mutations, of which 30 are in the spike protein.
By comparison, that is twice as many as the Delta variant, which has become world-dominant.
Mutations are changes in the viruses’ genetic makeup that make it behave differently. Sometimes the changes have no impact, but other times it gives the virus an advantage.
The mutations contain features seen in all of the other variants but also traits that have not been seen before.
It has mutations K417N, E484A, N440K and S477N that are linked to those in previous strains that were able to dodge vaccines.
It also has the mutation N501Y that makes viruses more transmissible and was previously seen on the fast-spreading Alpha variant.
Has it been classed as a “variant of concern”?
On November 24 Omicron was classed as a “variant under monitoring”, meaning scientists believe it may pose a future risk, but its impact is unclear.
But on November 26 it was bumped up to ‘variant of concern’ (VOC).
Other variants of concern included Alpha, or the Kent variant which was branded a VOC in December 2020.
Beta, which was detected in South Africa, Gamma, which was found in Brazil and Delta, detected in India, are also VOCs.
Where did it come from?
Experts say the variant may have evolved in a chronically sick person.
This is how the Alpha variant, first seen in Kent at the end of 2020, was suspected to have developed, too.
Prof Ravi Gupta, a professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, has said: “B.1.1.529 has signatures of cumulative mutation indicating that it emerged in a chronic infection.”
When will we have more answers?
Scientists in the UK are eager to acquire live virus cultures so it can be examined closely.
But this takes time and it could be “weeks” before we find out its impact on vaccines, Dr Hopkins said.
It can take seven to 10 days at least to grow enough virus that can be shared with other scientists so they can study how it mutates and changes.
Officials will now also have to wait for data to come from South Africa.
The earliest they are expecting evidence to come through is two to three weeks, but it could be as long as four to six weeks.
What is the Government doing to control it?
The Government chose to take immediate action to suspend flights from South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, Botswana, Eswatini and Zimbabwe.
Anyone arriving from a red list nation will have to register for a quarantine hotel for 11 nights.
Vaccinated travellers will have to book a PCR test to be taken on arrival or one of the two following days.
Read more on the travel rules here.
What restrictions may be needed in the UK?
Brits are familiar with the threat of new variants, and it was last Christmas that the rise of the Alpha strain destroyed festivities.
Prof Adam Finn, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), told Good Morning Britain: “On the one hand, I don’t want to induce unnecessary anxiety in people, but on the other hand, I think we all need to be ready for the possibility of a change in the restrictions.”
He explained that it was too hard to say if the new variant could impact Christmas plans for Brits.
Asked what the situation would mean for the UK over the coming weeks, Mr Javid said: “We’ve got plans in place, as people know, for the spread of this infection here in the UK and we have contingency plans – the so-called Plan B.”
