RESTRICTIONS in place to tackle the coronavirus may be needed for two more winters, an expert has warned.
England has been plunged into a third national lockdown in order to curb a rise in Covid-19 infections.
Graham Medley, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and a member of Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) this morning said we would be in this situation for “the long haul”.
His comments come after Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the virus “wasn’t going away”.
Addressing the nation last night alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Prof Whitty warned that some rules will have to return next winter, when bugs are more easy to spread.
He said: “Things will be lifted stage by stage.
“We will then get, over time, to a point where people say this level of risk is one people will be able to tolerate and lift, right down to almost no restrictions at all.
“We might have to bring a few in in the next winter for example, that is possible, because winter will benefit the virus.
“But the aim of this is to de-risk it as much as possible with the vaccine, so we get to the stage where the risk is incredibly low.”
COVID RESURGENCE
This morning Prof Medley said the government might need to reintroduce measures next winter.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, Prof Medley said: “We’re in for a long haul, we still (have) a long way to go in this epidemic.
“Vaccination is a way out, but I think he’s right to raise that possibility that there could be – next winter or even the winter after – the possibility that we will see a resurgence of Covid to such an extent that Government again has to take measures to prevent another large outbreak.
“But let’s get there. We’re very hopeful now that this virus is seasonal so that it will reduce once the spring and summer comes, and then that gives us an additional chance to be able to prepare and in particular to get vaccination done for everybody.”
It comes as:
- Matt Hancock ‘downplays target of vaccinating 13m by February’ as jabs won’t be delivered on Sundays and pharmacies snubbed
- Schools could be shut past February half-term as Boris Johnson refuses to guarantee return before SUMMER
- High street pharmacies WILL help with vaccine rollout, minister insists, after they said offer of Covid jabs ‘snubbed’
- Cops warn Londoners they WILL randomly stop people who leave home and fine anyone without masks £200 in Covid lockdown
- More than ONE MILLION Brits have Covid as mutant strain spreads and UK cases soar 70% in week
Prof Medley also questioned whether or not the new lockdown measures introduced by the government would be enough to curb the spread.
He added: “Schools closed at the moment, that adds an extra dimension to it. Not because schools as an environment are risky but because of all the associated measures and behaviour that goes with schools, so adult behaviour as well as children.
“So these measures just announced are going to have more impact but it is still a big unknown the extent to which it reduces transmission, it certainly will reduce transmission but a key figure of course is this reproduction number.”
The reproduction rate, the R rate, refers to the amount of secondary infections produced by a single person.
In the UK the rate is currently between 1.1 to 1.3.
Last night Prof Whitty said that coronavirus laws would be lifted over time, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that will begin when 13 million vulnerable people are vaccinated.
Professor Whitty said he hopes that the nation can get Covid to a level where the country can deal with – but said that some people will continue to die of it every year like flu.
He explained: “With flu, every year, around 7,000 a year die. In a bad year up to 20,000 a year die, there is a risk that society should tolerate.
“That is a political decision, a societal decision. We can with the vaccine get the risk down and down.”
But the coronavirus is “not going to go away”, he added.
“We shouldn’t kid ourselves that this just disappears in Spring.
“We just need to keep an open mind about that.”
He promised that any rules would not be on the same scale as now – with lockdowns, masks and social distancing across the nation.
JAB UP
It came as Mr Johnson revealed that 1.3million people have now had the Covid vaccine – with a quarter of all those over 80 having received their first dose.
The PM promised daily updates on the number of people who have had the vaccine to keep the nation in the loop on the fight against the virus.
He attempted to reassure Brits that his plan to vaccinate everyone was on track, just hours after he ordered everyone to stay at home.
Commenting on the vaccine roll out, Prof Medley said hospitalisations would impacted by the vaccine.
He said there are currently two major concerns, one being death rates and the other the amount of people in hospital burdening the health service so that “it begins to crumble”.
Prof Medley continued: “Those two things, the death and the hospitalisations, are going to be impacted by the vaccinations differently.
“The vaccines are going to have a big impact in mortality but a lot of the people who are in hospital are not in line for a vaccination until the major risk group for deaths has been vaccinated.”
Mr Johnson last night defending the government’s decision to roll out the first vaccine to Brits – while having a 12 week break between the first and second dose.
He said: “With Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca combined – as of this afternoon – we have now vaccinated over 1.1 million people in England and over 1.3 million across the UK.
“And that includes more than 650,000 people over 80 – which is 23 per cent of all the over 80s in England.
“And that means that nearly 1 in 4 of one of the most vulnerable groups will have in 2 to 3 weeks – all of them – a significant degree of immunity.”
He said that it was vital to consider the importance of the huge progress so far.
The average age of Covid fatalities is in the 80s, he added.
He appeared alongside Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance , who revealed that one in fifty people now have Covid – more than one million Brits.
Cases have soared by 70 per cent in just one week – and are now up by 60,916, as of Tuesday evening.
In England alone, some 27,000 people are in hospital with Covid, 40 per cent more than during the first peak in April.
