ANOTHER pandemic on the scale of Covid-19 is likely to hit within 60 years, a study warns.
The number of diseases spreading to humans is set to rise threefold in the coming decades, it said.
There is a two per cent chance of a pandemic in any year, experts at Duke University, US, added.
They warned that while the Covid-19 pandemic may be the deadliest virus outbreak since Spanish Flu over a century ago, the chances are it will not be the last.
Study author Dr William Pan, of Duke University in the United States, said: “The most important takeaway is that large pandemics like Covid-19 and the Spanish flu are relatively likely.
“Understanding pandemics aren’t rare should raise the priority of efforts to prevent and control them in future.”
New statistical methods were used to measure the scale and frequency of outbreaks over the past four centuries.
A range of deadly pathogens were included in the study, including plague, smallpox, cholera, typhus and novel influenza viruses.
Even though the rate at which pandemics have occurred in the past varies widely, certain patterns were identified.
This allowed the researchers to calculate how likely an event of similar scale was likely to happen again.
The probability of novel disease outbreaks will likely grow three-fold in the next few decades, the researchers warn.
A pandemic similar in scale to COVID-19 could therefore be on the cards within her next 59 years.
Co-author Professor Gabriel Katul said: “That is not to say we can count on a 59-year reprieve from a COVID-like pandemic, nor that we’re off the hook for a calamity on the scale of the Spanish flu for another 300 years.
“When a 100-year flood occurs today, one may erroneously presume that one can afford to wait another 100 years before experiencing another such event.
“This impression is false. One can get another 100-year flood next year.”
A deeper exploration of why devastating pandemics are becoming more likely and how to combat them is needed.
Dr Pan added: “This points to the importance of early response to disease outbreaks and building capacity for pandemic surveillance at the local and global scales, as well as for setting a research agenda for understanding why large outbreaks are becoming more common.”
